Black Swan Event Notebook

A black swan event is one you don’t see coming. This term is often heard with respect to economic events that are unanticipated and have a major effect on financial markets. The term “black swan” literally means a black swan rather than the white swans that we are used to seeing. It was once believed that black swans did not exist until they were discovered in the wild. A black swan event is expected to be rare, consequential and unexpected. Contrast that with the white swan event which is expected to be certain.